The World Series begins tonight with the Phillies of Philadelphia visting the Rays of Tampa Bay (although they play in St. Petersburg. Apparently some people are really sensitive about this point).
Vegas has established the Rays as favorites, mainly due to coming from the stronger league. BP gives the Phillies the slight edge, primarily due to the Rays' struggles with left-handed pitchers (of which they will see two starters, Hamels and old-man Moyer). Incidentally, apparently Vegas is trying to get people to put money on the Phillies, because they stand to lose a ton of cash to people who took the 150-1 longshot on the Rays at the start of the season. When I look at the rotation match-ups, I really only give the edge to the Phillies in Games 1 and 5, when Hamels takes the mound against Kazmir. I'll take Shields, Garza and Sonnanstine over Myers, Moyer, and Blanton. If it comes down to a Game 7 of Garza vs. Moyer, you'd have to give a big edge to the Rays.
Both bullpens are strong, probably a slight edge to the Phillies with their outstanding closer Brad Lidge. But the Rays bullpen features three good lefties in Howell, Miller and ALCS Game 7 hero/rookie David Price. This could prove to be important in high-leverage situations in the later innings, as Phillies manager Charlie Manuel refuses to separate his two big lefty bats at the top of the lineup (Utley and Howard). Expect some long innings with lots of pitching changes in the later stages of close games in order to take advantage of the splits.
As has been discussed before, the top of both lineups is very strong, with little to choose between the two, maybe a slight edge to the Phillies. In terms of depth and bench, the Rays have the clear edge with a lots of options for manager Joe Maddon. A prime example is using Peddie graduate Fernando Perez as a pinch runner/defensive replacement, who played a key role in the Rays extra-innings win over the Red Sox in Game 2 of the ALCS and probably should have played a role in the Game 5 comeback.
One interesting piece of trivia: the Phillies have been to 5 World Series, winning it just once (1980). The other teams they've lost to? The Red Sox (1915), the Yankees (1950), the Orioles (1983), and the Blue Jays (1993). The other 4 teams in the AL East, besides the Rays. Can the Rays finish off the sweep of the Phillies in the World Series by baseball's best division?
All in all, it looks to be a good series. Obviously, I'm rooting for the Rays to finish off their rags-to-riches-Cinderella-underdog-fairy tale story. But I wouldn't be too upset to see the trophy head to Philly and their suffering sports fans. I think it will be a long, closely-contested series, going 6 or 7 games. If the Rays can beat Hamels once, I think the series is theirs - so Game 1 tonight takes on some extra significance. If Hamels is on and their big bats can get the long balls going on somewhat gopher-prone Kazmir and Shields, the Phillies have put themselves in a great spot to win it all.
Enjoy the games.
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