Friday, December 12, 2008

Burnett to Bronx

It is being reported that the Yankees have signed former Blue Jay AJ Burnett to a 5 year, $82.5 million contract. Marcel projects Burnett to be about +3.5 wins next season, which is worth slightly more than the $16.5 million the Yankees are paying him. Factor in regression as he ages over the next 5 years and the contract looks to be priced about right, and gives the Yankees another boost to their rotation. That rotation now has 3 definite pieces in place (Sabathia, Wang, Burnett), Joba Chamberlain most likely being a part, albeit with some innings limitations (unless they decide to put him in the bullpen, which would be a mistake). For the 5th spot, in-house options are Phil Hughes (has not thus far reached his potential despite high hopes coming into last season) and Andy Pettitte (currently negotiating with the club and has apparently rejected their initial offer of $10 million for a one year deal). Going onto the market, Derek Lowe and Ben Sheets are the main options available. Rather than signing one of these guys to a multi-year deal, it makes a lot more sense to give Pettitte what he wants for one year, and see how Hughes develops this year. Pettitte is probably only slightly less valuable, performance-wise, than Lowe or Sheets (and I think the groundball-inducing Lowe's potential value goes down with the questionable Yankee infield behind him), and can be had for a one-year deal rather than the riskier option of locking up one of them for a few years. And that dreamy stare comes for free!

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