Pretty Nice Xmas Gift for Yankee Fans

So this is what happens when the Yankees miss the playoffs. They've now added first baseman Mark Teixeira to their lineup for 8/$180. Quite a pickup for the Yankees, and Cashman deserves some credit for what he's pulled off this off-season. Teixeira projects to have a batting line of about .295/.390/.550, and he's a switch hitter still in his prime who is pretty much a lock to hit 30 HR's. By all accounts, he's a plus defender, although that is somewhat expendable at first base. But this solves a lot of questions for the Yankees and most certainly makes them the favorites in the AL East next season (and on paper, probably the best team in all of baseball). This will (rightly) raise a bunch of questions about the competitive balance in baseball, but you can't really fault the Yankees for spending the cash they're bringing in with their new money-making machine stadium. You can fault them a bit more for the way their fleecing NYC taxpayers for that stadium, but they're no worse (except the numbers are a bit bigger) in that regard than pretty much every other professional sports team.

So yeah, this signing worries me in terms of what it means to the Yankees on the field this season - but it just makes everyone else (i.e. the Rays) that much more of an underdog, and therefore that much more fun to cheer for (and the Yankees that much more fun to cheer against). And can you imagine if the Yanks miss the playoffs again, given what they've done this off-season?

From the Desk of Douglas Adams

"On [that] world, the people are people. The leaders are lizards. The people hate the lizards and the lizards rule the people."

"Odd," said Arthur, "I thought you said it was a democracy?"

"I did," said Ford, "It is."

"So," said Arthur, hoping he wasn't sounding ridiculously obtuse, "why don't the people get rid of the lizards?"

"It honestly doesn't occur to them," said Ford. "They've all got the vote, so they all pretty much assume that the government they've voted in more or less approximates to the government they want."

"You mean they actually vote for the lizards?"

"Oh yes," said Ford with a shrug, "of course."

"But," said Arthur, going for the big one again, "why?"

"Because if they didn't vote for a lizard," said Ford, "the wrong lizard might get in."

[via]

#16

The Canucks retired Trevor Linden's jersey last night (and beat the Oilers, too) in an emotional ceremony at GM Place. I remember him being drafted 20 years ago, and it's a little weird to have an NHL without him. Linden is regarded by pretty much everyone as a class act both on and off the ice: former head of the players association, lots of chairtable work, and he really cared about and loved the city Vancouver. The Canucks' all-time leader in games played, Linden was an integral part of the team for many, many years, taking them to within a whisper of the Stanley Cup in '94 against the hated Rangers (incidentally, he was also on the heartbreaking '98 Canadian Olympic team, one of the saddest sports memories I have... at least Linden was able to win a couple of Memorial Cups while in Junior hockey). Hats off to him for all he did for the organization and the city. I don't think he has a funny blog, though.

Bolt Considering Trying a Real Running Event

Having blown away the world in the 100m and 200m, Usain Bolt has expressed interest in moving up to the 400m. His body type is actually more typical of a 400m runner and he’s got the mechanics to probably do pretty well (he’s almost certainly a sub-45 second runner right now). But will a life-long short sprinter be able to do the training required to succeed (and for Bolt, success means setting a world record, or at least winning a world championship) in the grueling 400m? That, my friends, is question only a pole vaulter can answer.

Two Great Hockey Stories

Story #1: A Heartwarming Tale from a Frozen Land
The entire Blackhawks team forgoes a trip home around Thanksgiving while in the middle of a road trip, in order to go with their GM Dale Tallon to northern Ontario for the funeral of his father. Pretty nice show of solidarity by the only blue-collar professional athletes left, and they should be commended even more for their willingness to spend more time in Ontario (although at least they got out of Toronto).

Story #2: Living the “Rink of Dreams”
Due to an injury to Jose Theodore and transportation problems with a goalie being called up from the farm team, the Washington Capitals were left without a backup goalie at the start of their game against Ottawa. So they got web producer Brett Leonhardt to put on the pads, and he got to dress as the backup goalie for 1/3 of a game (the AHL goalie showed up halfway through the first period), taking warm-ups on the ice and everything. Is he the Moonlight Graham of hockey? “Now, if I’d only got to be a web producer for 10 minutes, that’d have been the real tragedy.”

Greatest Sports Blogger Ever? Greatest Sports Blogger Ever.

Imagine a guy who was probably the best basketball player on his high school team. Now, imagine he was recruited by Harvard, but that deal ends up falling through. So instead, he goes to a huge state school, starts off as the manager of the basketball team, and then ends up walking on to the team. So he’s on one of the best college basketball teams in the country (playing with 2 future first round NBA picks, who he also happened to play with on an AAU team), and spends the next 2+ years averaging about one minute per game. So, this guy might have a reason to fade into obscurity, maybe have a chip on his shoulder, or at the very least not be dealing well with going from being a top player to being a benchwarmer. And there are thousands of players just like him all over the country, every year. And a lot of them can’t stop telling you how great they were, or how they got screwed over, or complaining about their playing time.

But Mark Titus didn’t react like that at all. He and two of the other bench warmers start calling themselves “Club Trillion”, in reference to their boxscores for these games: 1 minute played, followed by a string of a bunch of zeros for points, rebounds, assists, turnovers, etc. [It reads like this: 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (depending on what stats are used).] Mark has a sports blog called Club Trillion, and he writes about what it’s like to be a minute-per-game guy on a top college basketball team. And he does it all with a self-deprecating sense of humor and great attitude. He’s my new favorite basketball player, and I wish Mark all the best in securing a trillion in lots of Ohio State games this year. I read the entire archive of the blog today, and it’s hilarious (he only started posting a couple of months ago, so there’s not much there). If he keeps it up, it might even fill (some of) the void left by Fire Joe Morgan’s departure.

A sampling:

We beat Butler yesterday in a squeaker that featured my former high school teammate Gordon Hayward putting points on our team's collective face. Brownsburg High School was easily the best represented high school in the game, as Gordon and I combined for 25 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 assists. Because I didn't even get in the game, Gordon shouldered most of the productivity, but I looked really good with the towel around my neck on the bench. Seriously. I looked REALLY good. Despite Gordon's best effort, in the end my good looks obviously weighed much more heavily in the outcome of the game than his 25 points, because my team came out victorious.
…
Butler is a team that understands a fundamental truth about every Caucasian basketball player--we love short shorts. You could be saying to yourself, "But Mark, I'm white and I like baggier shorts" to which I respond with "You are not only a liar, but a disgrace to Kurt Rambis." The length of shorts is serious business to me, which is why I had to untangle my jaw from my shorts when I saw how perfect Butler's were (Note: I would have picked my jaw up off the floor, but on its way down my jaw got entangled in my absurdly baggy shorts). They weren't quite as crotch-suffocating as the shorts from the '60s, but these bad boys gave me my first look at a basketball player's knees since I was in high school.

I actually think Mark Titus is a role model; a smart kid, a good writer, an athlete, and with a great perspective on life to boot. I also happen to think he’s funny as shit.

Let. Them. Fail.

The American Political Royal Family

Is it just me, or is there something mildy disturbing that people in a country founded in a rebellion against a monachary seem more than willing to put people into political office for no other apparent reason than they have a famous last name?

Burnett to Bronx

It is being reported that the Yankees have signed former Blue Jay AJ Burnett to a 5 year, $82.5 million contract. Marcel projects Burnett to be about +3.5 wins next season, which is worth slightly more than the $16.5 million the Yankees are paying him. Factor in regression as he ages over the next 5 years and the contract looks to be priced about right, and gives the Yankees another boost to their rotation. That rotation now has 3 definite pieces in place (Sabathia, Wang, Burnett), Joba Chamberlain most likely being a part, albeit with some innings limitations (unless they decide to put him in the bullpen, which would be a mistake). For the 5th spot, in-house options are Phil Hughes (has not thus far reached his potential despite high hopes coming into last season) and Andy Pettitte (currently negotiating with the club and has apparently rejected their initial offer of $10 million for a one year deal). Going onto the market, Derek Lowe and Ben Sheets are the main options available. Rather than signing one of these guys to a multi-year deal, it makes a lot more sense to give Pettitte what he wants for one year, and see how Hughes develops this year. Pettitte is probably only slightly less valuable, performance-wise, than Lowe or Sheets (and I think the groundball-inducing Lowe's potential value goes down with the questionable Yankee infield behind him), and can be had for a one-year deal rather than the riskier option of locking up one of them for a few years. And that dreamy stare comes for free!

More Winter Meeting Goodness

A bunch more action out of baseball's winter meetings today. The Mets, Mariners, and Indians made a massive deal involving 12 players, the biggest of note was reliever JJ Putz heading to the Mets. What a difference for the Mets for next year in terms of the 8th and 9th innings. Instead of relying on some combination of Heilman, Smith, Schoenweis, and other guys, now you've got Putz and Rodriguez. That's quite an upgrade, and probably worth a few wins for the Mets for 2009. If I have time I'll look at the numbers and see how it actually projects.

In in the AL East, baseball's best division just got better. The Rays management has pulled off another excellent move, picking up outfielder Matt Joyce from the Tigers for starter Edwin Jackson. So the Rays picked up a left fielder with a decent bat and a great glove (giving them probably the best defensive outfield in the league, with Crawford/Upton/Joyce), filling a hole they desperately needed to fill and with a young, low-cost player with a high upside. Joyce is probably a +2 wins player, and they had to give up a fifth starter who is probably worth half a win or so. The Rays had a glut of starters and needed to move someone in order to make room for David Price, so this move solves their rotation questions for next season, too. (Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Price, Sonnanstine - not bad!). The Rays front office continues to show why they are one of the best in the game. This is how you build a winning team for under $50 million.

My Rickshaw Ran Into a Cow, And Other Stories From the Indian Subcontinent

A report on my trip to India, for those interested in such things:

[I spent Nov. 20-Dec. 2 on a trip to India, mostly paid for by a generous donor to our school who is looking to expand our Asian Studies program beyond East Asia. The plan was for myself and two of my collegaues (Brad Nicholson and Alison Hogarth of the history department) to scout some potential sites for a student trip planned for June 2009 and visit some private schools in Delhi in hopes of establishing a sister-school/exchange relationship similar to the one we currently have with the EFZ School in Shanghai, China.]

We arrived in Delhi late at night and went straight to our hotel. But even at night, you could tell there was a lot of smoke in the air. And the chaos at the airport was everything you would expect from India. And the traffic was as mildly terrifying as you could hope for. Delhi is enormous, but is not full of tall buildings. It's really interesting how different my opinion of Delhi was over the first few days compared to the last few days (after returning from some smaller cities). Initially, I was surprised at how dirty it was - the air pollution was pretty high, although I don't know if it was any worse than Beijing. But the aspect that was surprising was the trash. There is garbage everywhere in India (especially in the smaller cities we were in). People seem uninterested in properly disposing of garbage, and at this point, why would they? Malcolm Gladwell's "broken windows" tipping point theory is playing out fairly well here, it would seem. So at first I thought Delhi was kind of run down...but then after seeing other places in India and returning to Delhi, it seemed like a thoroughly modern, cosmopolitan city!

Like seemingly every country outside of North America, the traffic was disorderly to the point of amusement (especially outside of Delhi). Part of the issue is you've got 5 or 6 different modes of transportation all sharing the road, and they're all moving at different speeds. Cycle-rickshaws, motorcycles, auto-rickshaws, cars, buses, (with people walking along the side of the road almost everywhere) and none of them are paying any attention to things like lane markers. Being a former British colony, they've got tons of traffic circles. And if you're like me, traffic circles aren't exactly a model of safe, efficient traffic movement, let alone when tiny auto-rickshaws are merging with big trucks and motorcycles are weaving in and out of every opening. But you get used to it, and after a few days I was pretty comfortable with it.

The two places we spent time outside of Delhi were Haridwar (in the foothills of the Himilayas, where the Ganges emerges from the mountains) and Varanasi (orginally called Banares). Both of these cities are important pilgrimage sites for Hindus, due to their location on the holy Ganges River.

In Haridwar, the whole Ganges experience is much smaller than in Varanasi, with people doing their bathing rituals during the day and an intimate Ganga Aarti ceremony at sundown. Due to the connections of one of the Indian-born parents of a student at our school, we got to spend an hour or two in an ashram here, too, which was quite interesting - and even got to sit down with the guru for a few minutes and talk about Barack Obama. (He brought it up, not us! He was very interested in our opinion of him and the challenges he faces going foward.)

Varanasi is pretty overwhelming, and is probably the most prototypical Indian place we visited (in my mind). This is the place for Hindus to visit, and many are cremated along the banks of the Ganges here. The riverbank is lined with dozens of ghats (bathing steps) where many Indians come to wash themselves in one of the most polluted bodies of water in the world. The Ganges experience is much more developed here, and very much geared towards tourists. We took a sunset boat tour on the river to check out one of the cremation ghats and watched with a bunch of other westerners as bodies were burned on the banks of the river. Truly a fascinating scene. The Ganga aarti ceremony in Varanasi is much more of a spectacle, more like the Vegas version of what happens in Haridwar. Varanasi is also (due to it being much more touristy) full of people trying to sell you things, be your "guide" to the next temple, or generally rip you off any way they can. (It was dealing with one of these touts that I had my "Fuck India" moment and needed a bit of a break. The fact that I was stressed out about being there in general at this time due to the terrorist attacks probably shortened my patience.)

So yeah, the terrorist attacks. We were on an overnight train between Haridwar and Varanasi when it happened, so didn't find out about it till about 20 hours after it occured (leading to some definite stresses being put on some of those back home who hadn't heard from us after news of the attacks went worldwide). The part of it that freaked me out the most was that we checked into the Taj Ganges in Varanasi... part of the same chain of hotels as the Taj Mahal in Mumbai that was targeted by the terrorists. If we had gone to Mumbai, we probably would have been staying in that hotel - and that thought definitely put me in an interesting psychological position. We decided to just continue on as is (although we talked about trying to get out of the country early), but it was on my mind quite a bit the rest of the trip. I carried my passport and cash with my all the time, and was keeping my eyes open for escape routes if I started to hear gunfire. Probably a completely irrational overreaction, but you can't help how your mind reacts to a situation like that when you're in a very foreign country.

There's really so much more I could write, about visiting mosques, a bunch of Hindu temples, the site of Buddha's first sermon, and tracking tigers in a National Park (we didn't find any, although we did see a leopard). But just like in China, one of my favorite activies was walking some narrow streets and seeing the markets in action. I would have loved to have tried more food from the little stalls in these places, but there are a lot of concerns about quality (I only had one fairly minor day of stomach problems, on our last day in the country). Something that always makes me laugh is the way people criticize western culture for being so "commercial". Every country I've ever been is incredibly commercial, and India is especially so. Maybe it's just that people are pretty commercial.

To sum up, I was pretty surprised at how poor India is, especially outside of Delhi. Some of the rural areas I saw from the train looked like they would be much more at home in sub-Saharan Africa than in one of the (supposedly) rising world powers. I guess I expected India to be like China, since we associate the two as the big growing world economies. But from my perspective, India is a long way behind China in terms of development. India is an incredibly fascinating country - but I wouldn't say I loved it. It's crowded and dirty. There isn't (at least where we were) a huge amount of natural scenic beauty (or, you can't see it because of the haze). On the other hand, the food was outstanding. Most of the people were great. And the whole place kind of got under your skin, and looking back I feel pretty nostalgic about it, for reasons I can't quite explain. It cetainly does overwhelm the senses. I think the terrorist attack kind of clouded my opinion of the whole country, because to a certain degree it made me just want to be home and safe. For this reason, this trip wasn't quite a "normal" visit to India. It's not an easy place to visit at the best of times. But it is truly one of the most genuinely interesting places I've ever been.

That's Quite a Substantial Cost of Living Allowance

Correction from the previous post: Sabathia's deal is worth more than $160 million (over 7 years). Which means the Yankees offered him $60 million more than the other offer on the table, which was the Brewers $100 million contract. That might seem like a pretty big premium to put up with the ridiculous New York sports media and deeply ingrained Yankees mythology....but having seen what that's like, I don't know if it's worth it. Especially considering the low marginal value of a dollar when you're making $20 million-plus per year. But I don't think the players union would have let him reject such a lucrative deal. Which raises all sorts of philosophical questions about how well unions represent the best interests of their members (and the question of competitive balance in baseball), but we'll leave those for another time.

Finally Something Interesting

So the Mets signed K-Rod (3 years, $37 million) to fill the role of closer for next season in the massive sucking sound that is their bullpen. I was all ready to go off about how they overpaid for him, but I am personally shocked that the deal is as reasonable as it is - I thought the vaunted "saves record" would earn a bigger premium. Perhaps GMs are wising up to the fact that saves aren't a very reliable metric for measuring performance.

And it is being reported that the Yankees have landed CC Sabathia for a great big 6 year, $140 million contract to go with his great big gut. They probably technically overpaid, but it's the Yankees - they can afford it and he is one of the top couple of pitchers in baseball (but my god, what is a beer going to cost in the new stadium!?!). They certainly want to avoid the so-called catastrophe of missing the playoffs again, and they definitely have holes to fill in the rotation with Mussina retiring and Pettitte unlikely to return. A rotation of Sabathia, Wang, Joba, Hughes + ________ (Pettitte? Burnett? Lowe?) is pretty strong. Watch out, Rays.

Have a Drink in the Name of Freedom

Happy Repeal Day! It has been 75 years since the end of the ill-advised adventure of prohibition, so use this opportunity to celebrate by getting drunk. Drug czar John Walters uses the day to inform us that the government is winning the war on those nasty intoxicants that remain illegal. Huh. Who knew? Maybe someday, if we just wish hard enough, we'll be celebrating the anniversary of the right to put whatever we want into our own bodies!

Jacob Sullum on Waters' statement:

"The good news in drug policy," Walters writes, "is that we know what works, and that is moral seriousness." Moral seriousness on this subject would require taking into account half a million nonviolent drug offenders behind bars, the victims of black market violence, avoidable deaths caused by the unreliable quality and unsanitary practices that prohibition fosters, the risk-premium subsidy to thugs and terrorists, the corruption of law enforcement officials, and the loss of civil liberties resulting from the drug war's perversion of the Constitution. Walters' claim to moral seriousness is therefore hard to take seriously. I'd settle for a little bit of intellectual seriousness from whomever Barack Obama chooses to succeed Walters, but it seems to be incompatible with the job.

Unicorn Sighting

In three days, the album that Axl Rose has been talking about making for 15 years is finally set to be released. Chinese Democracy is due out on the 23rd, and this actually does have to qualify as a pretty big event in rock history. Chuck Klosterman wrote a review of the album for the AV Club, and you should check it out, whether you like Gn'R or not. It's funny and insightful, because it's Klosterman. Also, go watch the video for November Rain, which is "Stairway to Heaven" for my generation. Watching that, I might have to say that one of my lifelong dreams is to play a guitar solo while a wind machine blows dust towards me and a helicopter flies overhead multiple times for tracking shots.

It Is Written: NL MVP

Well, the Baseball Writers of America have proven many people wrong (including me) in actually making a very intelligent choice for the NL MVP. In a narrow vote, Albert Pujols beat out Ryan Howard. I don't have time to do a lot of analysis with this now, but Pujols often gets overlooked because he's just so good that he has to be incredible to even get noticed. But in a race without a clear favorite, the fact that he is (by a fairly large margin) the best hitter in baseball was able to make him a deserving winner of the MVP award.

Their biggest mistake? Chase Utley 15th!! He probably deserved to be about 2nd.

Comparing Turkeys to Watermelons

Paul Wells advocates for increased high speed rail in Canada. In principle, I totally agree with him (provided it's primarily privately-funded), and think rail might need to be extremely important in the medium- to long-term transportation mix for North America. However, Wells has a map of Europe's expected high-speed rail lines for 2020 and compares it to Canada's likely forays by that year, which is absurd when you consider it has a population about 20 times that of Canada and a population density of over 70 people per square km, vs. Canada's...3. It's unrealistic to think that the same type of mass transit would be used in both situations. Rail might well be a good option, but just because Europe's got a good system doesn't in and of itself mean Canada needs to follow suit, anymore than the Kootenays needs a subway system on par with London's. The Windsor-Toronto-Montreal corridor might have the population density to support such a system, but it just doesn't make sense for the rest of the country. Maybe Calgary-Edmonton at some point in the future. What is kinda disturbing (without being at all surprising) reading the comments on the article are the number of people who think it's totally fine to spend billions of taxpayer dollars on something just because it's cool, and then we can say we've got high-speed rail. I'm not saying it CAN'T be a smart investment, but I think we need to set a higher bar for determining the appropriate use of public funds. (Not a very Canadian idea, I know). Have people not heard of a cost-benefit analysis?

NOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!

The End of an Era: The guys at FJM are calling it quits. Kudos to them, though, for providing one of the smartest, funniest blogs on the internet for the past 3 and a half years.

Thanks for Nothing, NFL

Not only do you put the biggest game of the week on a network nobody actually has (and then the game turns out to be an instant classic), but your idiotic overtime rules mean I will be subjected to ever-more slobbering over that prick Brett Favre.

AL Cy Young

Cliff Lee (hey, another guy on my fantasy team!) easily won the AL Cy Young award today, as expected. I agree with the pick, although you can make a pretty strong case (and many have) that Roy Halladay was just as, if not more, deserving. Again, the voters did a decent job, with these two getting all of the available first place votes. However, I don't quite get the guys who had Matsuzaka ranked second...that means they had to have him over at least ONE of Halladay and Lee.

Which is clearly ridiculous!

(7 people also had Rodriguez 2nd, which is also wrong.)

Life Imitates The Simpsons

Prepare to be outraged. If you're a criminal in Canada, you don't have to serve time if you're morbidly obese.* A guy in prison in Quebec was given early parole because, basically, prison was too hard for him and his 400-plus pound body. He's also filed a complaint with Canada's Thought Police, the Quebec Human Rights Commission. I've been awake for 20 minutes, and this is definitely the stupidest thing I've heard today.

* The obvious caveat applies that he was in jail for drug trafficking so I don't actually think he did anything illegal, anyway. But this is still a dangerous and silly precedent.

Miss Ing The Point

Ireland's RyanAir makes a calender (with the proceeds going to charity!) featuring female members of their cabin crew in bikinis. The reaction?

The Institute for Women in Spain is considering legal action and intends to complain to Irish and EU authorities that the publication is sexist as it only features female models.

I can understand women not really appreciating the calender. You know, objectifying women and all that. But you can honestly get SUED for making a calender featuring sexy women?! I think this is taking the feminist thing a bit too far. And the litigation thing. The funniest thing about it is the Daily Mail's reporting of this story...with every picture in the calender there in the article. Hey, they know what sells. And it's Miss Runway, Miss Fuel Pump, and Miss Control Tower.

This Is the End. The Only End, My Friend

A lengthy, but very interesting article by Michael Lewis (Moneyball, The Blind Side, Liar's Poker) on the end of the glory days on Wall Street.

"HEY MOM!! THE MEATLOAF!! WE WANT IT NOW!!"

Even the intellectually-deficient (yet still somehow likeable) former Vice Presidental nominee has gotten in on the tired, tired cliche of referring to bloggers as living in their parent's basements, wearing pajamas. Pretty sweet, we're really getting famous!!

The Worry Meter is Creeping Higher

Maybe it's too early to be passing judgements, but thus far my impression of Obama's new Chief of Staff, Rahm Emanuel, is not at all good. Here he is responding to former AG Anthony Gonzalez discussing the differences between the war on terror and the drug war (who incidentally, basically admits that the drug war is unwinnable!):

From the United States' most senior law enforcement official, the man who should be leading the war on drugs, this white flag of surrender will not be reassuring to the millions of parents trying to protect their kids.

The thought of putting someone in the West Wing with a worse approach to the unjustified, destructive, and idiotic "war on drugs" than the current administration is bad enough. But his ability to brush aside concerns about civil liberties is even more troubling, as I think we've all had quite enough excess in that regard from the occupants of the White House.

First Set of MLB Awards; Voters Actually Do OK!

...except for the three people who voted for Edinson Volquez for NL Rookie of the Year. Who is not a rookie. But he was on my fantasy team. Just like the (deserving) winner, Geovany Soto of the Cubs. And since I didn't win the league, I'll use this opportunity to credit myself for also having the AL Rookie of the Year, the Rays' Evan Longoria. These votes were pretty predictable, and I think the voters called them correctly.

Tim Lincecum took home the NL Cy Young. I would have voted for him, too. He was definitely more deserving than Brandon Webb, despite Webb's gaudy win totals - so perhaps the voters are getting smarter. There is definitely a case to be made for Johan Santana, who if the Mets bullpen was even halfways decent would have had about 5 more wins and probably taken home the award easily. I guess I side with Lincecum because Santana is suffering from Albert Pujols Syndrome for Awards Voting: he's so damn good on a regular basis that he has to be absolutely spectacular to get noticed (see also: Rodriguez, Alex). Lincecum has that funky delivery that is just awesome to watch (not that that should be a criteria), and also played for a terrible team - so who knows how many wins he could have had with an adequate offense. By most advanced metrics, there's not much to choose between Santana and Lincecum: almost equal in VORP and almost equal in WPA/LI (although Lincecum has aabout a 0.5 win edge when just looking at WPA and not correcting for leverage). Their ERA's are very similar as well, but when you take out defense and only look at their controllable stats, Lincecum takes a big lead: his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) was 2.59, vs. 3.51 for Santana, primarly due to Lincecum's high strikeout totals (10.51 per 9) and the fact that he allowed homers at half the rate of Santana (0.44 HR/9 vs. 0.88 HR/9). With this in mind, I think you can make a strong case that Tim Lincecum was the best pitcher in the NL this season. Oh, and of course, he's a tiny little guy, which makes him an underdog. Which is the best reason of all.

Kidding.

The Something Doctrine

Apparently it's not only us bastardly free-marketeers who try to take advantage of a crisis:

“Rule one: Never allow a crisis to go to waste,” [Obama's Chief of Staff] Mr. Emanuel said in an interview on Sunday. “They are opportunities to do big things.”

Maybe Naomi Klein will add a chapter to the next edition of her book. But I doubt it.

Funny How That Works

Hey, look: it appears the Democrats aren't that concerned with limits on executive power anymore! And let me guess, the Republicans will all of a sudden remember the small-government principles they've been ignoring the past 8 years!

One of Eddie Van Halen's Greatest Guitar Solos

Cool photo: A volcanic eruption in Alaska, viewed from space. I think one of the coolest things about this photo is the way the shock wave from the eruption appears to be pushing to clouds away from the volcano in the upper part of the photo (I have no idea if that's actually what is causing that effect, but it makes sense to me).

Buyer's Remorse in 3,2,1...

Well, that didn't take long. Lowlights of President-elect Obama's first 3 days as heir to the White House:

1. The suggestion from Obama/his potential Chief of Staff that perhaps enforced slavery of high-schoolers or 18-25 year olds isn't such a bad idea. (i.e. the creation of a universal voluntary service for young people. If it's "universal", how can it be "voluntary? It would sure be ironic if first black president is the one who brings back slavery).
2. Taking money from profitable industries and giving it to unprofitable ones. (i.e. more, more and more money going to bailout the Big 3 car companies).
3. Discovering that the 5 million "green collar jobs" spouted during the campaign is "just meant to inspire people", and not a "real estimate". (And it continues to be annoying that need for lots of jobs (in other words, inefficiency) to transition to a greener economy is treated as a feature, not a bug, of such plans).
4. Apparent consideration of a Hugo Chavez-loving, scientfically-ignorant NIMBY hypocrite to head the EPA (i.e. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who refuses to believe evidence denying a link between vaccines and autism, and fought to keep wind power generators from an off-shore site near Cape Cod, where they would be in view of the Kennedy compound).

Sure, I'm kind of excited, too, but let's start being realistic. The expectations that people are putting on an Obama presidency are dancing along the fine line between comical and insane. How are these people going to feel when the most they get out of the deal is a $500 child tax credit and military actions in Pakistan? People are so optimistic that they seem to feel that within weeks of Jan. 20, 2009, their budget problems will be solved, the nation's economy will be back on track, gas prices will be down, home prices up, and everyone will have a new puppy. (He promised us one in his speech, didn't he?!)

And finishing the weeek with some wise words from Roderick Long: "it’s great to see a black person at last in the nation’s highest-profile and most influential job – I just wish the nation’s highest-profile and most influential job weren’t the goddamn presidency".

"I Want to Hear 3,000 People Snapping Their Fingers in Unison for Change"

I went to see literary-folk-rock-indie-celtic band The Decemberists in NYC last night, and both the band and the crowd were full of vigah over Obama's victory. "A new dawn", singer Colin Meloy proclaimed early in the show. Other politically-charged highlights were leading a call and response of "Yes We Can/Yes We Did", having everyone snap their fingers for change/hope/president-elect Barack Obama, and a cardboard cutout of Obama doing a crowd-surfing tour of the venue.

Like the separation of church and state, I usually prefer to have music and politics operate in different spheres. However, again indicating the uniqueness of this situation (or my own willingness to drink the Hope & Change Kool-Aid), it felt kinda special to be in a place with that kind of positive energy and meaning.

Silver's Gold

Time to check in on Nate Silver, the sabermetrician who created Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA forecasting system and predicted the Rays winning 90 games this year way back in February. It seems that he's made a relatively smooth transition to electoral predictions:

Shortly before Tuesday's vote, Chief Numba-Cruncher posted his final prediction for the 2008 Presidential Election: Barack Obama would win the election with 52.3% of the popular vote, while John McCain would collect 46.2%. The final vote tally as of this morning? Obama 52.4%. McCain 46.2%. One-hundred-and-twenty million votes were cast and the dude was off by one-tenth of one percent. (He also called 49 of the 50 stats correctly.) Holy. Crap. [Emphasis added.]

His lone mistake: he incorrectly called Indiana for McCain. His model predicted an average number in the electoral college of 348.6 for Obama and 189.4 for McCain (there are decimals because it is the average result of multiple simulations of the model), and the final tally looks like it will be 364 to 174, with the flip of Indiana basically accounting for the difference. Not too shabby. Vindication for the stat nerds. What's also interesting is that he was off by just a tenth of a percent in the election, but his average error for his baseball predictions was significantly greater, in the range of 9 wins per 162 game season (although PECOTA was still the best this year). Conclusion? Baseball is less predictable, and therefore more interesting, than politics. QED.

I Guess If Someone Has to Be Given All This Power, It Might As Well Mean Something

Will Wilkinson does a great job of summarizing my own conflicted feelings over the election of Barack Obama. He too was moved, and has gotten caught up in the transformative cultural importance of a black president. However, also like me, he has deep misgivings about the excessive role the government plays in our lives and how it captures our counciousness, making it difficult for people to see how they can do anything to positively change the world outside the halls of state.

In essence, here is the way I (and Will) feel: it's a shame that politics in general (and presidental power in particular) means what it means to so many people. But given the fact that it does mean that much to many people, Obama's election represents important progress, and is a powerful, symbolic event in history of the country (and the world).

Worth reading.

We are the Diamonds. We come from Glasgow.

Well, there was just way too much emotion and sincerity in that last post. So now it is time for the greatest, best, and most awesome sports team promotional song and video of all time. Because laughter is what really unites us all. This video is perhaps singularly responsible for the failure of American football to catch on in the UK. Be warned: you will have this song in your head the rest of the day.

Reflections

There is a buzz going around today. It seems, for perhaps the first time in my lifetime, that many people (at least Democrats) are genuinely excited about the election of a president, and feel that they can believe in government in way that is very rare these days. There was a certain "I was there" feeling about watching Obama make his victory speech. I am pretty sure the difficult realities of governance will bring down the euphoria soon enough, but even I can say that it feels kind of good to be seeing democracy at work and thinking, "yeah, this is pretty cool." The reactions of people like Colin Powell and Jesse Jackson to Obama's victory make the symbolic importance of his election hit home. It's a pretty amazing event, considering where this country was 50 years ago.

The way the world outside of the US has reacted has been fascinating and somewhat awe-inspiring. Although it certainly makes one think that people worldwide could do less in attaching their perceptions of people from a certain country to whomever their elected officals happen to be - this is still the same country that elected George Bush 4 years ago, and now because 52% of eligible voters preferred Barack Obama, all of a sudden the world is in love with America? The various newspaper headlines from around the world are neat, though: "One Giant Leap for Mankind" (The Sun, UK), "The New World (The Times, UK). The Globe & Mail has a gallery of front pages here. It adds to the feeling of this being Something Big.

Finally, like McCain, Obama made a nice speech last night. There were parts of it that even moved a cold-hearted anarchist like myself, and made you believe in the founding ideas of this country and what the United States can be. Some excerpts I particularly liked:

If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible; who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time; who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer.
...
It's the answer that led those who have been told for so long by so many to be cynical, and fearful, and doubtful of what we can achieve to put their hands on the arc of history and bend it once more toward the hope of a better day. It's been a long time coming, but tonight, because of what we did on this day, in this election, at this defining moment, change has come to America.
...
And to all those watching tonight from beyond our shores, from parliaments and palaces to those who are huddled around radios in the forgotten corners of our world - our stories are singular, but our destiny is shared, and a new dawn of American leadership is at hand. To those who would tear this world down - we will defeat you. To those who seek peace and security - we support you. And to all those who have wondered if America's beacon still burns as bright - tonight we proved once more that the true strength of our nation comes not from our the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals: democracy, liberty, opportunity, and unyielding hope. For that is the true genius of America - that America can change. Our union can be perfected. And what we have already achieved gives us hope for what we can and must achieve tomorrow.

And after making a pretty powerful point about the amount of change a 106-year-old black woman has seen in her lifetime:

America, we have come so far. We have seen so much. But there is so much more to do. So tonight, let us ask ourselves - if our children should live to see the next century; if my daughters should be so lucky to live as long as Ann Nixon Cooper, what change will they see? What progress will we have made? This is our chance to answer that call. This is our moment. This is our time - to put our people back to work and open doors of opportunity for our kids; to restore prosperity and promote the cause of peace; to reclaim the American Dream and reaffirm that fundamental truth - that out of many, we are one; that while we breathe, we hope, and where we are met with cynicism, and doubt, and those who tell us that we can't, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a people: Yes We Can.

It's worth reading the whole thing, or watching it if you missed it. Pretty good stuff.

However, Voters Don't Much Like Homosexuals

While it seems that most people don't mind the idea of a black president it appears that the majority of voters are uncomfortable with the idea of basic human rights and equality for gay people. Voters in Florida and Arizona easily passed constitutional amendments defining marriage as between a man a woman, and the much-discussed Proposition 8 in California (even California!) looks like it is going to pass, although the vote is close.

Voters Like to Get High

Nicely done by the voters of a couple of states: Massachusetts decriminalized small amounts of pot (not that the feds will honor this) and Michigan approved medicinal marijuana. We are more free than we were 24 hours ago!

That Dude With the Weird Name is the Next President

I'll be the first to admit that I'm extremely cynical about politics, but even I can't help feeling emotional seeing all the African-Americans (and others, too) cheering and in tears as the networks declare Obama the winner of the presidential election. And the interviews with black leaders about how far they have come since the days of MLK's "I Have a Dream" speech (which really is an incredible, tingling speech) are pretty amazing. I don't know if anything much will change in a practical sense over the next 4 years, but you have to admit that the symbolism of electing a young black man as president is pretty powerful, and pretty cool.

Now the interesting question for me is how close Nate Silver (of Baseball Prospectus, and he's the guy who created PECOTA) is with his projections! If he's close, will the stat nerds will be vindicated, and freed from the opression of our mother's basements? Stay tuned!

UPDATE, 11:20pm - Pretty nice concession speech by McCain, I thought.

UPDATE, 11:38pm - Just to be clear, I don't really see eye-to-eye with Obama on a lot of issues & philosophies. But I feel relatively positive about him (since I will probably never see eye-to-eye with any "electable" candidate) because he seems like an intellectually curious person who is going to use logic and evidence when designing policy. It's a relatively low bar, yes, but given what you can end up with in these things, not altogether bad.

The Way He Didn't Get to That Ground Ball Was Rather Jeterian

Because nothing in the world is more fun than bringing up Derek Jeter's lack of fielding prowess, I bring you the 2008 Fielding Bible Awards, in which Jeter ranks as the 22nd best shortstop in the Majors. The real enjoyment, however, comes from reading the responses from Yankee fans to such statistics.

The story is getting old, but never stops being fun: according to most advanced fielding measures, Jeter is a below average shortstop (and before anyone yells too loudly, I agree 100% that he is a fantastic hitter, and deserves to be in the Hall of Fame someday). Presented with such evidence, Yankee fans point to one or more of the following, irrelevant things: 1) JETER IS TEH CLUTCH!!@!&. 2) His Gold Glove awards (given out by the same idiots who thought Bartolo Colon was the best pitcher in the AL in 2005). 3) The 2 plays (2001 "flip" and 2004 running catch into the stands) which must "prove" what a great fielder he is. Good plays, both, but indicate about as much as that one half-court shot I made one time shows how good a long-range shooter I was. (For the record, I was not). 4) Bill James works for the RED SOX and this is clearly a conspiracy to tarnish Jeter's legend and/or create a "name" for the company doing the statistics (in this case, Baseball Info Solutions, who I think already have a pretty decent "name" amongst students of the game). 5) Jeter has slept with a lot of hot women. Why some Yankee fans like to brag about this, I have no idea. 6) Statheads like me don't understand the game and should stick to sitting in our mother's basements playing with spreadsheets.

Jeter himself has defended himself by saying that these models don't account for things like the pitchers, the runners on, etc... but as Tom Tango's "With or Without You" study showed, even when you DO correct for these things, Jeter just doesn't seem to be a great fielder. Maybe there are things he does on the field that are important in helping his team win games. But it appears that for the things we are able to actually measure in term of fielding ability, at this stage (and I will grant you that fielding statistics are imperfect science with many advancements that need to be made) Jeter appears to be behind many of his peers.

Really, Jeter seems like a pretty decent guy: good teammate, hard worker, and a fine hitter (although perhaps a really great teammate would have been the one to volunteer to move positions when the best shortstop in baseball gets traded to your team). But the mythologizing over him and his accomplishments creates a cult of personality that is incredibly common these days. Of course, when the fans of a baseball player think he can do no wrong it's not a big deal, and is makes for fun arguments. But when fans of the president think he's beyond criticism, that's not healthy for society. Another reason why baseball is better than politics.

Avert Your Eyes

If at all possible today, try and spend at least a few minutes paying attention to (and appreciating) the part of life not directly connected to the system of coordinated violence and threats designed to force other people to do what you want them to. The weather appears to be quite pleasant in most areas of the country. There are kids playing in the park. There is a lot of great music out there. And just look at those fall colours out my window this morning!

Three Depressing Days to Go

This election just can't be over soon enough, as far as I'm concerned. The two main options get less palatable by the day, and while I can see why some may feel good about an Obama victory, is there really any reason to put this much meaning in the outcome of a popularity contest?:

The Obama/Biden Inaugural -- the exact moment when the world goes from gray to colorful.

I mean, wow. Really? That's a commenter's byline at Daily Kos. It is certainly gives credence to the uncomfortable notion that Obama is receiving a messiah-like charge from some of his supporters. I'm sure there are a bunch of similar people on the right, too, seeing as we now have what amouts to what Gene Healy calls the "cult of the presidency". Reading the comments at dKos is downright depressing, seeing the stock that so many have put in the power of an elected official to Totally Change Everything and return all good to the world. And especially the people practically bragging about the time and money they have spent working for an Obama victory, wiping out their bank account to donate to his campaign. I just have to think there are better ways to make the world a better place, no matter what you believe in politically.

On the other hand, I understand that under and Obama presidency we won't have to worry about putting gas in our cars or paying our mortgages. Pretty sweet deal.

"You can Ram it all day and Ram it all night"

Despite the filthy innuendo in almost every line, this video featuring the 1986 Rams is safe for work. This was probably the beginning of the end of the Rams' days in L.A. Although they actually did a decent job with some of the choreography.

Tonight in Philly, The Liberty Bell Rings Loud and Proud

Congrats to the Phillies for winning the World Series. They pretty much completely outplayed the Rays this series, and are deserving winners. And after the debacle on Monday night, it would have always felt like there was an asterix on the achievement had Tampa Bay actually come back to win it (not that I wouldn't have taken it). I hope the Rays can come back to the playoffs next season, as you know there are going to be a bunch of people out there calling this year a fluke. You know, the 97-win regular season, winning two playoff series' kind of "fluke". They've still got an incredibly talented young core and I expect them to be competitive for years to come. More on the off-season as things happening with free agents and signings.

But this is Philadelphia's night. Burn on, cars parked on Broad Street.

The Literary Adventures of Slugger McBatt

A cool article on MLB.com about Tampa Bay's Fernando Perez, who went to high school where I currently teach. A couple of our faculty were interviewed for the story, which presents Perez as not far off from some of the fictional baseball players in W.P. Kinsella's short stories, who spent time reading in the dugout between innings. It's nice to see an athlete portrayed as an intellectual, and by all accounts Perez was and is an outstanding and well-rounded human being. (Now if he can only help the Rays win three straight games in the World Series!).

The Ides of Marsh

I took my AP Environmental Science class to the Hamilton-Trenton Marsh today to look at the biodiversity of macroinvertebrates in the 100+ year-old man-made lake and the 15 year-old beaver ponds. The kids had a great time and got really into finding the bugs. My initial observation of their results are that we found a greater number of individual organisms in the lake, but a greater species richness in the beaver ponds. Science nerds are free to speculate on the reasons for this difference. It was definitely a worthwhile trip and a well-organized program put on by Dr. Dennis Gemmell at Rider University. We got lucky with a really beautiful day, too.

The Blue Wave Will Hit You Like a Tsunami

The 1985 Seattle Seahawks put forth a great effort in the sports videos hall of fame. This video's biggest strength is obviously the locker room shower sax solo.

Free Stuff!

Thanks to Jason Bartlett's stolen base in Game 1, we all get a free taco at Taco Bell (from 2pm-6pm on Tuesday, Oct. 28). And now, it appears that Axl Rose will actually release the new Guns n' Roses album, the decades-in-the-making Chinese Democracy. Therefore, we are all entitled to free Dr. Pepper (download the coupon on Nov. 23, which is the scheduled release date). This is how you ride out an economic downturn!

Pointing Sticky Fingers

I'll fess up: I don't know what caused the current financial crisis. I do suspect, though, that the proximate and ultimate causes are much more varied than many people who are pointing fingers now would like to believe. Megan McArdle sums it up:

This brings me to a pet peeve that has been increasingly irritating me as the crisis wears on: people with little or no understanding of markets confidently opining on the causes of the crisis. Funnily enough, the cause of the crisis is always exactly what they happened to be against before the crisis happened, and the solution is for the people they disagree with to be banned from polite society and exiled from the political process. (Emphasis added)

She is of course then pilloried by her readers for not having all the answers. And for suggesting that people who didn't know what a credit default swap was 3 months ago probably shouldn't be deciding what caused the semi-collapse of a extremely complicated financial system (that professionals within the industry admit they don't completely understand). The progressives are blaming the free market, "American-style capitalism" (whatever that means), and Wall Street's horrendous misunderstanding of risk. The conservatives are blaming the government-sponsored enterprises of Fannie and Freddie and the various government policies enacted to promote home ownership. And some people (myself included) are saying that a bunch of people shouldn't have taken out mortgages for 4,000 square foot homes they couldn't really afford or leveraged these homes to make investments under the ussumption that they "hey, real estate will always go up in value!" All of these played a role in the current situation, and to pin it on one because it supports your ideology isn't going to help us figure this out or avoid it in the future.

I'll tell you one thing we don't need more people putting the blame on, though: greed. This is the equivalent of saying that a bridge collapse was caused by gravity. I know "greed" is going to play a role in the situation, because it plays a role in every economic action taken by human beings. Bringing up a constant is unhelpful in explaining how a situation arose. Putting the blame on "greed" does us no benefit moving forward, because I'm pretty sure the next set of bankers, home buyers, and government officials will be just as greedy these ones were. And they were in the late, great 1950's, too, when everything was wonderful, houses where white, lawns were green, and teenagers respected their parents. The mortage lenders get criticised for being "greedy" in taking loans from lower-income people who were poor credit risks. And if they had rejected these loans, citing the risk of default?... They'd be accussed of being greedy. So they can't win. Either way, they are trying to maximize profits, which is their job. I'm not interested in the greed part of it, because it does not help us understand this situation or avoid similar catastrophes in the future. What we need are institutions and models that understand that people are greedy and take it into account when predicting how people will behave and what the effects of economic decisions will be. Greed is a useful scapegoat for presidential candidates, but it pretty useless in making any real progress.

It Was 20 Years Ago Today: 1988 Dodgers Do the Baseball Boogie

A World Series Opening Game special. How much would you pay to see Manny Ramirez and Russell Martin reenact this video for the 2008 Dodgers?

Why All Good-Hearted Dreamers Cheer For the Rays

A great deal of my love of baseball comes from analyzing, discussing, and projecting the countless statistics the game creates. It is sometimes incredibly frustrating to me the degree to which most members of the sports media insist on throwing out claims about the game that really don't mean anything and have no statistical backing whatsoever. For the most part, I want logical, scientific analysis of the game. Does playoff experience matter? I have no idea (I suspect it matters much less than it is portrayed) but if you're going to claim it does, show me some statistics that prove it. However, most people aren't like this. Human beings love a good story, and one of the most timeless narratives we have is that of the plucky underdog overcoming all the odds to succeed. And even I'll admit that I'm a complete and total sucker for that one, at least when it happens in the real world. The Tampa Bay Rays had never had a winning record. They had never won more than 70 games in a season. They had no fans. They were laughing stocks. And yet, slowly, quietly, and with a good deal of intelligence and baseball acumen (and a bunch of high draft picks) they were assembling a pretty fine baseball team. And they started winning. And people who don't know a thing about baseball started to call them out, without even looking at the talent on their roster, and telling that they needed to wake up and remember that they were The Tampa Bay Devil Rays and start losing again, just like they always do. (That post probably increased my fandom for the Rays 6-fold. I would love to get him to revisit that post today). And yet here they are, playing in the World Series.

If you have ever played for a team that people didn't believe in, come from a part of the world that people use as the butt of jokes, or just love an underdog-does-good story, you owe it to yourself to at least give a little bit of love for the Rays, and teams like them. I played for an underdog high school in an underdog province from an underdog country (well, at least compared the only one we ever compare it to), and I'll always cheer for the little, underfunded team to upset the powerful juggernaut with a huge payroll. This is especially true in sports like college football where the difference between teams is so pronounced, but even in professional sports we have the Rays and their (2nd lowest in baseball) $43 million payroll managing to topple the behemoths of the Red Sox and Yankees in their own division, with about $350 million spent on players between them. Unless you're the CEO of Wall Street investment bank (well...)cheering for the little guy just does something for the soul and inspires all of us that maybe we can surprise a few people, and maybe ourselves, too.

There Will Be a Show Tonight, In Tampa Bay

The World Series begins tonight with the Phillies of Philadelphia visting the Rays of Tampa Bay (although they play in St. Petersburg. Apparently some people are really sensitive about this point).

Vegas has established the Rays as favorites, mainly due to coming from the stronger league. BP gives the Phillies the slight edge, primarily due to the Rays' struggles with left-handed pitchers (of which they will see two starters, Hamels and old-man Moyer). Incidentally, apparently Vegas is trying to get people to put money on the Phillies, because they stand to lose a ton of cash to people who took the 150-1 longshot on the Rays at the start of the season. When I look at the rotation match-ups, I really only give the edge to the Phillies in Games 1 and 5, when Hamels takes the mound against Kazmir. I'll take Shields, Garza and Sonnanstine over Myers, Moyer, and Blanton. If it comes down to a Game 7 of Garza vs. Moyer, you'd have to give a big edge to the Rays.

Both bullpens are strong, probably a slight edge to the Phillies with their outstanding closer Brad Lidge. But the Rays bullpen features three good lefties in Howell, Miller and ALCS Game 7 hero/rookie David Price. This could prove to be important in high-leverage situations in the later innings, as Phillies manager Charlie Manuel refuses to separate his two big lefty bats at the top of the lineup (Utley and Howard). Expect some long innings with lots of pitching changes in the later stages of close games in order to take advantage of the splits.

As has been discussed before, the top of both lineups is very strong, with little to choose between the two, maybe a slight edge to the Phillies. In terms of depth and bench, the Rays have the clear edge with a lots of options for manager Joe Maddon. A prime example is using Peddie graduate Fernando Perez as a pinch runner/defensive replacement, who played a key role in the Rays extra-innings win over the Red Sox in Game 2 of the ALCS and probably should have played a role in the Game 5 comeback.

One interesting piece of trivia: the Phillies have been to 5 World Series, winning it just once (1980). The other teams they've lost to? The Red Sox (1915), the Yankees (1950), the Orioles (1983), and the Blue Jays (1993). The other 4 teams in the AL East, besides the Rays. Can the Rays finish off the sweep of the Phillies in the World Series by baseball's best division?

All in all, it looks to be a good series. Obviously, I'm rooting for the Rays to finish off their rags-to-riches-Cinderella-underdog-fairy tale story. But I wouldn't be too upset to see the trophy head to Philly and their suffering sports fans. I think it will be a long, closely-contested series, going 6 or 7 games. If the Rays can beat Hamels once, I think the series is theirs - so Game 1 tonight takes on some extra significance. If Hamels is on and their big bats can get the long balls going on somewhat gopher-prone Kazmir and Shields, the Phillies have put themselves in a great spot to win it all.

Enjoy the games.

Your 2008 AL Champs!

About the production values you would expect from a North American soccer team

#2 in the continuting series features the imaginatively-named San Diego Sockers.

Saturday Night Pick-Me-Up

If you're feeling a little down about the game, you can read the guys at FJM doing the FJM thing to the article about Jerry Manuel that I did my very own not-particularly-funny FJMing of yesterday. They're professionals at this.

And I think it's time for another sports promotional video, which is the ultimate way to turn around a downer night. Coming right up....

Bloc Parties Just Aren't That Much Fun

A fine article by Jeffrey Simpson on the role of the Bloc Quebecois in the national political scene. Some choice passages:

They apparently welcome a party that wants no part of governing Canada while continuing to demand more and more from it. More and more in the sense of more money for Quebec, more jurisdictional power, a larger international presence and other way stations to the Bloc's eventual goal of an independent Quebec.
...
Since 1993, the largest number of francophone Quebeckers apparently has wanted no part of federal parties, and therefore of the government or governance of Canada. Canada is no longer a country they wish to participate in governing, but one from which they wish to withdraw cash, like an automated teller machine.
...
The Bloc is quite brilliant at depicting anything Ottawa does that is remotely favourable to Quebec as a consequence of Bloc pressure, whereas anything that does not correspond to Quebec's "interests" is the fault of these insensitive, threatening parties that represent the "other," and of the imprisoning federal structure.
...
In this culture, nothing is ever enough. Mr. Harper got Parliament to declare the Québécois as a "nation." Put it in the Constitution, demanded the Bloc. Mr. Harper declared the "fiscal imbalance" resolved. No, it's not at all, demanded Mr. Charest. Give Quebec another $880-million, demanded the Bloc. Mr. Harper said he would change the way the television and telecommunications regulatory agency operates to ensure greater francophone presence. Give us the entire power of culture and communications, demanded Mr. Charest.

Is it wrong to wish that a few thousand more Quebeckers had voted "Yes" in 1995? As they say, read the whole thing.

"Big Game" James Shields?

He's my favorite pitcher and all, but why have I never heard him called this until the TBS announcers started referring to him as it during this series? And how exactly does one get a "Big Game" moniker when your team has never played in a big game until this season? At any rate, here's to hoping I can remove the question mark from the title of the post in about 18 hours.

2009 Mets Setting Themselves Up For a 3rd Place Finish

Relishing his new permanent role as the Mets manager, Jerry Manuel explained his philosophy of constructing the team. Sorry Mets fans, this isn't exactly what you want to hear from the supposed leader of your ball club:

"You get so many statistical people together, they put so many stats on paper, and they say, well, if you do this and you score this many runs, you do that many times, you'll be in the playoffs," he said. "That's not really how it works, and that's what we have to get away from. And that's going to have to be a different mind-set of the team in going forward. We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people. We have to win because we have baseball players that know and can understand the game."

Yes. They clearly need to get away from the things that the statistical people are saying wins games. Things like...scoring runs. And preventing runs. Those are a couple of important stats. Manuel would rather have guys who "know how to win" and "understand the game". I'll take the "good hitters" and "good pitchers".

For Manuel, the key is teaching his players to execute in the key situations. "We have to put a value on say, moving a runner over. We have to put a value on getting a bases on balls. We have to put a value on infield back, [getting a] ground ball that's sufficient to score a run," he said. "Those types of things have to be accented in order for us, in my opinion, to kind of get to the next level."

(Emphasis added). So he's saying that they should be putting a value on aspects of the game.... which is the total opposite of what the stats guys are trying to do with things like "VORP". Who knows what that stands for. Something something replacement player. I can't remember what the "V" stands for.

"You don't see a lot of guys that have statistical numbers play well in these championship series," Manuel said. "What you see is usually the little second baseman or somebody like that carries off the MVP trophy that nobody expected him to do. That's because he's comfortable in playing that form of baseball, so therefore when the stage comes, it's not a struggle for him."

Yes. Given a short series, almost anyone can be a star. However, in order to get to those games in October, you have to have good players over a 162 game season. The Mets might still be fine, with talented players like David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and Johan Santana. But this isn't the way you want your manager thinking going into a season where your biggest competitor in your division just advanced to the World Series.

Wildlife Alert: Perth Wildcats are on the prowl

The first in a series of fantastic sports videos. I'm not exactly sure what was behind the explosion of these promotional songs, or why so many teams thought they were a good idea, but if this doesn't make you nostalgic for the carefree innocence of the late 1980's, nothing will.

"Model" Fenway

This view of Fenway Park is actually a real photograph, but is doctored to look like a model by using the method of fake tilt-shift photography.

The Psychology of Phandom

Last night's devastating loss and subsequent inability for me to fall asleep brought to mind some thoughts about the nature of being a sports fan. Now, I will be the first to admit that I have not been a life-long Rays fan, only having really been following them closely for the past 2 years or so, mainly because they were horrible but had some talented young players whom I found interesting and I'm a sucker for an underdog with a glimmer of hope. But for 15 minutes after that loss last night, it felt like the worst thing in the world, just a complete and utter disappointment, and I had a boiling rage of hate for the Red Sox players, fans, ownership, anyone living within the Greater Boston Area, and had vowed to never drink a Sam Adams ever again. Which is obviously a pretty stupid reaction to the result of a game featuring a bunch of grown men chasing a ball around a field wearing ridiculous pants.

So why do we grow so attached to the results of certain sports teams? (Besides the ones we bet on, of course. The profit motive is very powerful. I totally understand why we can get passionate about that situation... like, um, the 2008 Final Four. /shameless self-promotion) The irrational hatred of the Yankees by the Red Sox and vice versa by those who are passionate about those teams is one of the reasons I find it difficult to support those teams (well, that and the sense of entitlement). Clearly some (arguably negative) aspects of human nature (such as grouping and the "us-vs-them" mentality) are tapped into very well by sports teams and the response is not unlike the irrational way people look at countries, primarily their own. Nationalism is a pretty big beef with me, and there are some obvious parallels - to the point that I feel guilty for loving the Olympics as much as I do. For the most part, objectivity is thrown out the window for the fan, just like the lover of country. It is an emotional activity that centers on our feeling of belonging to a group and the thrill of competition against The Others. There is likely a pretty powerful evolutionary root for this part of human nature, but it's probably best for us to step back every once in a while and realize what we're getting all excited about.

So I'm gonna shut off my heart and go look at some VORP projections for next year. After all, I've got a fantasy league to win!

A Big Comeback in Graph Form

Obviously I wasn't pleased with the outcome, but that was a pretty amazing comeback. You don't get many chances like that to close out a series: 7 run lead heading into the bottom of the 7th. And the Rays couldn't do it. And now I need to get my work done for tomorrow morning.

ALCS Game 5 Live Blog

I've never tried this before, but I'm very interested in this game, so here goes. Kazmir vs. Matsuzaka.

8:12 - HR UPTON! 2-0 Rays. This dude is on fire. After revealing in Sept. he was playing with a shoulder injury. If this was Pedroia, Youkilis, or David Eckstein, all we'd be hearing about was what a tough gamer he was for playing so well in the post-season while hurt. Subtle racism? I don't know. But you have to give Upton some credit for his amazing play this series.

8:18 - The next 3 Rays go in order to end the top of the first. We'll see what Kazmir is bringing tonight, which is a big question mark. Maddon played with the rotation to have him pitch this game, so we'll see if he looks like a genius or an over-tinkerer.

8:22 - Crisp walks on 5 pitches. Typical Kazmir thus far.

8:30 - He gets Trail, B.C's Jason Bay to fly out to center field to end the inning. 2 walks, 21 pitches. About what could be expected. Hopefully he can get through the 5th with the lead and then all hands on deck to finish the game.

8:38 - Dice-K makes a nice play on a screamer back up the middle by Navarro. Two down.

8:44 - After Gross walks and then steals second, Bartlett flies out to left to end the inning. Matsuzaka has looked pretty good since the first two batters of the game, but the Rays are being patient and getting his pitch count up as well. As expected, both starters are on pace to throw about 254 pitches between them by the 5th inning.

8:54 - Kazmir hits Varitek with 2 outs. He is having some control problems (50% strikes) but has been able to survive thus far.

8:54 - Kotsay lines one up the middle and the top of the order comes up with runners on 1st and 2nd. The pitch count mounts.

8:58 - He gets Crisp swinging. Still no runs, but he's leaving runners all over the place. Too nerve-wracking.

9:04 - Upton gets on with a nice single up the middle. He is locked in. We'll see if he runs here.

9:05 - Well, Upton was going...but it only helped him jog around the bases more quickly as Pena drove the first pitch past the Pesky Pole into the seats. 4-0 Rays.

9:07 - Longoria!!! A no-doubter. 5-0 Rays. The bullpen is up for the Red Sox.

9:11 - Floyd strikes out to end the inning. Now as the announcers keep saying in an effort to curse Tampa, the Rays are 38-0 with a 5 run lead this year. But it's still early; still 21 outs to get. Hopefully Kazmir can dial in now and get through the next few innings.

9:17 - Kazmir gets 2 quick outs and then Youkilis has a nice at bat and fouls off a bunch of pitches before singling to right. That guy is a good hitter.

9:20 - Gets Trail, B.C.'s Jason Bay to strike out swinging. That was a better inning for Kazmir.

9:26 - The Rays go quickly in the top of the 4th, with a fly to left, a soft liner to 2nd, and a pop foul outside of first. Matsuzaka settles down after his rough 3rd inning. It's really all on the Rays' pitching staff now, although it would be great to see the offense keep applying the pressure.

9:30 - Drew walks on 4 pitches.

9:32 - Longoria makes a nice play to get the lead runner at second. One away.

9:36 - What the hell are these guys talking about? Are there actually a bunch of real baseball fans who coming into this series had not heard of Kazmir, Shields, and Garza?! They've been in first place for most of the year! Maybe there really are a bunch of people who only pay attention to the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, and Cubs, (thank you, ESPN!) but seriously - most knowledgeable fans have seen this Rays rotation (and lineup) coming for a couple of years. Varitek strikes out, but a passed ball allows Drew to advance to 2nd.

9:38 - And he strikes out Kotsay. 5 K's for Kazmir.

9:43 - Iwamura walks to start the 5th and that ends Dice-K's night. Okajima comes on in relief. (Look at that Japan-centric post!)

9:49 - Upton strikes out swinging, going down for the first time tonight. Pena comes up and with the shift on he bunts to the left side and gets on. I like the way he does that what he sees the opportunity with a man on 1st. 2 on for Longoria.

9:57 - Longoria strikes out and Crawford grounds out to Pedroia to end the inning. Iwamura stole 3rd during Longoria's at-bat but they can't bring him home. We move to the bottom of the 5th with the top of Boston's order coming up.

10:02 - 3 up, 3 down for Kazmir, with his best inning. 12 outs to go.

10:10 - 3 up, 3 down for Okajima, with the Rays going quietly in the top of the 6th. Aybar pinch-hit for Floyd that inning in the DH spot with the lefty on the mound.

10:14 - Kazmir has thrown 90 pitches through 5 innings. Pretty decent for him. 2 hits, 3 walks, and the aforementioned 5 K's.

10:16 - Het get Youkilis swinging after another tough at-bat. That's a big out. 6 K's for the lefty.

10:18 - Bay (from Trail, B.C.) goes down swinging. 7 K's. Kazmir appears to settle in around the 100 pitch mark.

10:27 - Delcarmen comes on to pitch for the Red Sox in the 7th, and walks Bartlett. The Rays have had the leadoff man on quite frequently this game.

10:28 - Well, ok, it has only been 3 times. But it seemed like more.

10:28 - Don't hand them the trophy just yet, guys. This still isn't as solid as the Yankees felt with Mariano coming on in Game 4 in 2004.

10:32 - Back-to-back walks. Let's open the floodgates here. Francona is pulling out all the stops, with Papelbon coming in to pitch in the 7th with 2 on and no outs. It would be nice to see managers make these kind of decisions in games besides elimination games of the playoffs.

10:39 - Nice double steal to put the runners on 2nd and 3rd. The small-ball purists love this Rays team, with 4 steals tonight. Oh, and 3 big dingers.

10:42 - Upton hits a high, high double off the top of the scoreboard on the Green Monster. Both runners score, and it's 7-0 Rays. They are walking Pena to pitch to Longoria with runners on 1st and 2nd.

10:51 - Longoria grounds into a double play. I suppose the Rays could have tried the double steal again there with Upton and Pena to try and stay out of that situation, but with a 7-0 lead you don't really need to. Crawford grounds to 3rd and we head to the bottom of the inning. It's down to the pitchers to get 9 outs. Kazmir is likely done due to his pitch count and the length of that half inning.

10:55 - As expected, it's Aussie Grant Balfour on to pitch for the Rays. And Lowrie promptly blasts one off the short right field wall for a double. So Balfour will be yelling at himself to try and retire the next 3 batters. Varitek is up, turned around to the left side.

11:02 - Two flyouts to Upton by Varitek and Kotsay and there are 2 down for Balfour.

11:04 - Crips lines one into left field just past a diving Longoria. Lowrie has to stop at 3rd, so they're at the corners for Pedroia. This is a huge at-bat.

11:09 - He lines it into right and that brings a run home. 2 on for Ortiz, and all of a sudden this doesn't seem very comfortable.

11:10 - And that's why. Big Papi crushes a 3-run homer into the stands and Fenway is going crazy. He was bound to do that at some point. 7-4 in the 7th, 2 outs.

11:17 - Wheeler is now on the mound for Tampa. He gets Youkilis to fly out to Gross in right, ending the inning. 6 outs left. The Red Sox were down to a 0.7% win expectancy after the two fly outs in the bottom of that inning, but it's up to about 7% now.

11:28 - Papelbon retires the side in order, so it's Bay, Drew and Lowrie due up. Boston is looking at about a 9% WE.

11:32 - Wheeler walks Bay on 4 pitches. Not the start we needed here.

11:33 - Drew drives it into the stands. 7-6 Rays. REALLY not what we needed.

11:40 - Kotsay doubles to center with 2 outs, bringing up Crisp.

11:47 - After a really long at-bat, Crisp singles to right. Gross makes a horrible throw, or something, and they get Crisp trying to advance to 2nd. 7-7 heading to the 9th, and the Red Sox have all the mojo, and all we will be able to hear about is the young, inexperienced Rays not being able to finish the job and the vaunted "playoff experience" of the Red Sox and how they have "been here before", blah, blah. But yeah, that was quite the implosion from a 7-run lead, although the Red Sox had to start hitting at SOME point.

11:50 - Masterson is on for Boston, with Cash behind the plate. Bartlett up for the Rays. And he singles to left to put the go-ahead run on first.

11:59 - Iwamura flies out, but Upton walks to put runners at first and second. Not sure why they didn't use a one-run strategy with Iwamura up.

11:59 - ...and Pena grounds into a double play. Pedroia, Ortiz, Youkilis coming up in the bottom of the inning against (I presume) Howell. I can't take this.

12:01 - Boston's WE is sitting at 64%. What a difference a couple of innings makes.

12:03 - Nice play by Bartlett to get that deflection from Longoria and throw out Pedroia by a step.

12:04 - Ortiz tries to pull a Pena and bunt down the 3rd base line, but pushes it foul. Good strategy. He then strikes out swinging.

12:10 - After a (predictably) long at-bat, Youkilis puts one down the line and Longoria makes a throwing error which allows Youkilis to end up on 2nd. Maddon is walking Bay to get the platoon matchup against Drew.

12:16 - Drew lines it over Gross's head in right and the game is over. I will not be turning on ESPN in the near future to listen to the talking heads discuss this game. Christ, what a disappointment. Game 6 is Saturday in Tampa, Shields vs. Beckett.